经济学人社论 | 佛罗里达的繁荣启示录

日期：2022-05-03
来源：一天一篇经济学人
Here comes the Sunshine state 
阳光之州来了
英文部分选自经济学人20220402期社论版块
 

Florida 
佛罗里达
Here comes the Sunshine state 
阳光之州来了
What American can learn from Florida’s boom

佛罗里达的繁荣给美国人的启示
1-As the southernmost state in continental America, Florida is often pooh-poohed as peripheral. Headlines about crimes committed by Floridians, sometimes involving alligators, alcohol, or a combination of the two, have contributed to a wacky “Florida man” stereotype. Many associate Florida with retirement, rednecks and a world-famous rodent, Mickey Mouse.
作为美国本土最南方的州，佛罗里达经常被嗤笑为边陲小地。佛州人的犯罪事迹屡次登上头条新闻，时有短吻鳄或酒精牵涉其中，或兼而有之，这些新闻刻画了一种固有形象——古怪的“佛罗里达人”。一提到佛罗里达，很多人就会联想到退休、红脖子和举世闻名的米老鼠。
注：
佛罗里达是美国本土最南边的州，美国领土的最南端位于美属萨摩亚。
红脖子乡巴佬
If someone describes a white man, especially a lower-class American from the South, as a redneck, they disapprove of him because they think he is uneducated and has strong, unreasonable opinions. 乡下人; 对来自美国南部下层社会的白人男子的蔑称 （柯林斯英汉双解大词典）

2-In fact, Florida has become emblematic of much of America and central to all of it. The state is on the rise, as our special report this week explains. Between 2010 and 2020 its population grew at double the national rate. Florida has overtaken New York to become America’s third-most-populous state after California and Texas, with a dynamic and diverse demography, including fast-rising numbers of Hispanics. It is now the number-one destination for American and foreign movers. In the year to July 31st 2021, 260,000 more people arrived in Florida than left—equivalent to adding a city the size of Buffalo, New York.
事实上，佛州的发展不仅是美国大部分地区的缩影，对全美的发展而言也是至关重要。正如我们本周的特别报道所称，佛罗里达州正在崛起。2010至2020年间，该州的人口增长率是全国的2倍。佛罗里达州已取代纽约州成为美国人口第三大州，仅次于加利福尼亚州和得克萨斯州，而且人口结构多元、动态变化大，西语裔人口增速尤其明显。现已成为美国人和外来移民的首选之地。截止到2021年7月31日的近一年时间里，佛罗里达州人口净流入达26万多人——增量都相当于纽约州布法罗市的总人口。

3-Its economic and political heft is growing, too. Florida’s GDP has doubled since 2002. Were it a country, it would rank as the 15th-largest economy in the world, ahead of Mexico and Indonesia. Having recently gained a 30th electoral-college vote, it has more than a tenth of those required to win the presidency. The largest swing state, in the past 12 presidential elections Florida has voted all but twice for the winner. And as home to musicians, athletes and a recent former president, Florida is a cultural trendsetter, for better or worse, as well as ground zero for the fight over government restrictions related to covid-19.
佛州的经济和政治影响力也在与日俱增。自2002年以来，该州GDP翻了一番。假如把它看作一个国家，佛州相当于世界第15大经济体，排名超越墨西哥和印度尼西亚。佛州最近刚刚获得第30张选举人票，这意味着该州掌握了赢得总统选举所需票数的十分之一以上。佛州是摇摆州中的最大票仓，在过去12次总统大选中，该州都将票投给了获胜方，只有两次例外。佛州出了不少音乐家和运动员，上任总统也迁居该州。不管怎样，佛州是文化的领潮者，同时也是反对政府防疫措施进行抗议行动的爆发点。
注：home to a recent former president
意指2021年宣布搬迁至佛州的特朗普

4-Americans ignore this powerhouse at their peril—and should heed the lessons it holds. For a start, Florida points to the wider looming battle between generations. Its residents include millions of retired Americans who want to limit government spending, even while they use government programmes, such as Medicare, a health-care scheme for the elderly. Younger Floridians, meanwhile, want to see investment in their own future, and are finding cities like Miami increasingly unaffordable.
美国人必须重视佛州并关注该州的经验教训，否则只能后果自负。首先，佛州提出代际斗争迫在眉睫且影响广泛。那里居住着上百万退休人士，他们享受着政府服务，如针对老年人的医保项目——红蓝卡（Medicare），却希望限制政府开支。与此同时，佛罗里达的年轻一代希望政府对他们的未来进行投资，他们渐渐无法承担在像迈阿密这样的城市生活。

5-The young are also more affected by the threats Florida faces, nowhere more so than over the environment, Florida’s biggest draw as well as its most acute vulnerability. A fifth of its property is at “substantial” risk of flooding because of rising sea-levels. Its Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, was elected as an environmentalist and has invested in programmes that fund cities’ “resilience”, but the state needs to do much more. Florida has a chance to serve as an inspiration for how to mitigate the damage of climate change, but risks becoming a cautionary tale of what happens when a state government does too little, too late.
佛州面临的众多威胁也更容易给年轻人造成影响，其中以环境问题最为严重。环境既是佛州最大的亮点也是最脆弱的部分。由于海平面上升，佛州五分之一的房产正面临“严重的”洪水威胁。共和党籍州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis）之前以环保主义者的姿态当选州长，也已经投资项目打造“韧性”城市，但是这还远远不够。佛州有机会成为减缓气候变化影响的积极典范，但也有可能沦为警示案例，让人看到地方政府不作为、慢作为的严重后果。

6-Politically, Florida has come to embody the Republican Party and its rightward tilt. If the Florida-based Donald Trump decides not to run again in 2024, Mr DeSantis is the likeliest Republican nominee for president. The rising number of independents in Florida suggests that people are fed up with both parties. But Democrats look especially vulnerable. A decade ago they claimed 558,000 more registered voters than Republicans; today they trail Republicans by 43,000. Nationally, Democrats need to run more optimistic, centrist candidates who can appeal to independent voters like those in Florida. As it is, they are struggling to shake off the “socialist” label that Republicans have given them, turning off many voters, notably Hispanics.
政治上，佛罗里达已经成为共和党阵营的象征，代表了右倾。如果住在佛州的唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)决定2024年不再参选，德桑蒂斯最有可能成为共和党总统候选人。佛州无党派人士不断增加，表明人们对两党都厌倦了。但民主党看起来尤其脆弱。十年前，他们比共和党多斩获55.8万注册选民；而今天，他们却落后共和党4.3万人。在全国范围内，民主党人需要让更乐观的中间派候选人去参选，这样才能吸引像佛州等地的无党派选民。而事实上，民主党无力摆脱共和党给他们贴上的“社会主义者”标签，这让他们失去了许多选民，尤其是西语裔选民。

7-Lastly, Florida offers a case study in economic policy. It charges no income tax, which enhances its appeal, as do the pro-business attitudes of the state’s leaders. The pandemic has prompted people and firms to reconsider where they want to be based, leading many to move out of high-tax, high-regulation states (such as New York and California) to Florida and Texas, which are pro-business and tax-light. Silicon Valley and Wall Street types are attracted to a place where politicians welcome them and never condemn their success.
最后，在经济政策方面佛州也提供了研究案例。它不征收所得税，且该州领导层亲商，这都增加了它的吸引力。疫情促使个人和企业重新考虑搬迁，许多从高税收、高监管的州（如纽约州和加州）搬到亲商业、低税收的佛州和得州。硅谷和华尔街精英们青睐这样一个政客欢迎他们、其成功亦从不受谴责的地方。

8-It is neither practical nor desirable for all other states to emulate Florida’s low-tax, low-spend model. But Florida’s success should give pause to states intent on continuing to raise taxes, to enact new regulations and to slander successful businesses. As America’s population peaks, states will compete with each other for people. Those that prove to be good places to live and work will be rewarded with economic growth.
让其他所有州都效仿佛罗里达州的低税收、低支出模式既不现实也不可取。但佛罗里达州的成功值得某些州深思，不应再执着于继续提高税收、制定新法规或诋毁成功企业。随着美国人口总数达到顶峰，各个州将会互相争夺人口。宜居宜业的好地方将迎来经济增长。
注： give pause
 give (someone) pause ( also  give (someone) pause for thought) : to cause (someone) to stop and think about something carefully or to have doubts about something
Merriam-Webster's Advanced Learner's Dictionary

9-Florida itself has lessons to learn, too. It has a history of booms and busts, with an over-reliance on property. It thrives as people move there, yet some of its politicians sound anti-immigrant. It should deal with the rising cost of living and its tired infrastructure. The rightward shift in the legislature is concerning for those who have a broad, and inclusive, interpretation of liberty. This week Mr DeSantis signed into law the “parental rights in education” bill, also known as “don’t say gay”, which limits discussion of sexuality in classrooms.
不过佛罗里达州也有需要改进的地方。该州过度依赖房地产行业，历史上曾经历过数次荣衰。佛州的经济也随着人们移居到那里而蓬勃发展，但佛州的一些政客好像反对移民。佛州应该解决生活成本上升和基础设施老化问题。州议会的右倾倾向也让那些对自由有着广泛、包容的解读的人忧心忡忡。本周，德桑蒂斯签署了《家长教育权利法案》，也称之为“不要说同性恋”法案。该法案限制在课堂上讨论性问题。

10-Still, Florida’s surge and struggles are instructive. Mock Florida Man, if you wish, but don’t underestimate him.
然而，佛罗里达的崛起与挣扎仍具有启发意义。你可以嘲笑佛罗里达人，但不要低估他们。
注：
Florida Man: 一个梗，佛州经常出现搞笑新闻。eg: 一佛州男子下车把狗留在车上，之后狗踩油门，把男子撞伤……

观点|评论|思考
本次感想
Neil,  男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉
以前对佛罗里达的印象只停留在地图上，位于美国东南角，和古巴接近。对佛罗里达州有更进一步的印象是从疫情开始，自己有一个汽配客户在FL，会时不时地关注那里的疫情。疫情期间FL的表现还是很神奇，有疫情，但不是那么严重。反而很多人都跑到FL去生活，那里气候适宜，三面环海，阳光沙滩海浪，是人向往的生活。人多了，当地的房价猛涨。

我们一般判断一个地区未来的经济表现，其中一个指标是人口流入。这两年流入近30W人口，位列全美前列。劳动力增加，所以FL这两年的经济发展快。当然人口大量流入也会带来一些问题，比如房价涨幅过快，新居民和原住民会有冲突。特别是拉美和西班牙裔移民，他们居住在贫民窟，犯罪比例也相对较高。这个是移民地区难以避免的问题。

FL的流入人口可以说非常多样，但总的来说，人口多样性对当地发展还是利大于弊。文章提到Florida has become emblematic of much of America and central to all of it. 还是挺认同的。美国的发展得益于来自世界各地的移民人才。可惜最近这十年美国变得对移民排斥，尤其是咱们国家的高科技人才。美国不再像以前一样那么包容。从基因的角度，生物多样性，使人类在一次次病毒挑战中，幸存下来。国家的发展也是如此，没有包容性，变得封闭妄自非大，一定会失去未来。